Thursday, June 9, 2011

PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers expects high flows downstream of Glendo Reservoir

(Click on the link above for a .pdf version of the press release)


Omaha, Neb.—Due to record-setting snowpack conditions in Colorado, the head waters of the North Platte River, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Omaha District, expects high inflows this summer to Glendo Dam and Reservoir, located on the North Platte River about 80 miles southwest of Casper, Wyo. or about 100 miles north of Cheyenne. Glendo Dam is a Bureau of Reclamation project regulated by the Corps when the reservoir level reaches the flood-control zone.

Current snow pack conditions in the upper North Platte River Basin are above previous high runoff years of 1983, 1984 and 2010. Based on Reclamation and Corps forecasts, the Corps expects a total system runoff volume of 2,370,000 acre-feet from April through July 2011.

"The anticipated runoff volume could be substantially altered depending on additional snowfall or rainfall, and we will continue to aggressively monitor snow pack conditions and provide updated forecasts as conditions change, in conjunction with the Reclamation, Natural Resources Conservation Service and the National Weather Service," said Col. Robert J. Ruch, Omaha District Commander.

Weekly coordination meetings have been held with representatives from multiple city, county, and state offices as well as federal agencies in Nebraska and Wyoming.

High snowpack conditions are also affecting Lake McConaughy water levels and releases. On May 23, Corps officials, the National Weather Service, Nebraska Department of Natural Resources and the Central Nebraska Public Power and Irrigation District (CNPPID) met with officials from the Nebraska Department of Emergency Services and the city of North Platte to discuss current snowpack conditions and any measures that might be taken to minimize impacts as increasing flows pass through Lake McConaughy. The Corps, in cooperation with the City of North Platte, has placed staff gages within the community at several key locations along the North Platte River and South Platte River to collect river level data to assist in monitoring these river levels.

With less channel capacity along the North Platte River from Glendo Reservoir to North Platte, Nebraska, due to vegetation and siltation, higher river level values will be experienced, though similar flow values from past events can be expected.

The Corps forecasts for the North Platte River are indicated in the table below:

Glendo Reservoir Release
Passing Tri-State Diversion Mitchell, Nebraska Bridgeport, Nebraska Lewellen, Nebraska North Platte, Nebraska
Peak flow 7,500 cfs 10,000 - 11,000 cfs (1) 10,500 - 12,000 cfs (1) 11,000 - 13,000 cfs (1) 11,500 - 13,500 cfs (1) 6,000 - 7,500 cfs (2)
Current flow as of June 7 6,300 cfs 7,300 cfs 7,500 cfs 7,400 cfs 7,700 cfs 5,500 cfs
Estimated River Rise (3) not available 1-2 feet 2-3.5 feet 1-2 feet 1-2 feet 0.5-1.5 feet
(1) Assumes varying Laramie River flows
(2) Peak flow at North Platte, NE with projected operations plan from CNPPID
(3) The river rise is based on the stream gage and may be higher or lower due to backwater along the river

NEMA Joint Information Center Daily Update

June 9th Update:
http://www.nema.ne.gov/pdf/jic-daily/june-8-2011.pdf

Presentation Slides from Last Night's Public Meeting

The City of Bridgeport has made available the slides from last night's public meeting regarding the flooding potential. Click on the title above, or this link (http://cityofbport.com/uploads/flood_slides.pdf) to view a copy of the slides.

Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

Around 250 Attend Public Meeting; Slides to be Posted Later this Morning

Around 250 people attended last night's public flood preparedness meeting at Prairie Winds Community Center. The slide show presentation from last night's meeting will be posted later this morning for download.

Friday, June 3, 2011

FEMA JIC (Joint Information Center) Update

NEWS RELEASE

Nebraska JIC Daily Update

*All times are CDT, unless otherwise noted*

(Lincoln, Neb.) – “We are taking the projected flooding in the Missouri and Platte Rivers very seriously,” said Major General Judd Lyons at a news conference Friday, morning. As adjutant general for the Nebraska Military, General Lyons serves as director of Nebraska Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). “We are taking proactive steps to help the citizens of Nebraska deal with situations brought on by this flooding.”

NEMA is working closely with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and other state, local and federal agencies to develop a number of flood response plans, General Lyons said. Some of the proactive steps being taken include:

 Working with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to identify and build levees;

 Helping local emergency managers to procure sandbags;

 Identifying critical infrastructure (bridges, roads, power plants, utilities) that will be affected by the flooding and developing strategies to protect them;

 Contacting emergency managers daily in affected counties.

General Lyons said, “Even though you might not be experiencing flooding right now, due to the expected levels of water that are projected to flow through these two rivers, that doesn’t mean you won’t be affected in the weeks and months to come. Any proactive steps you can take now could help you tremendously down the road.

Officials urged citizens of Nebraska to pay particular attention to instructions given to them by state and local emergency management officials.

“Due to the high volumes of water entering the Missouri and Platte Rivers, it will be some time before the waters can recede. You need to prepare to be affected for weeks and months,” said Al Berndt, assistant director of NEMA. “We need the citizens of Nebraska to be proactive and assess their personal situations and take whatever proactive measures they can.”

Both Rivers are rising as we speak,” said Brian Dunnigan, director of the Nebraska Natural Resources District. “The next two or two and a half weeks are critical. If you have experienced flooding in the past along the Missouri or Platte you can expect to experience flooding this year.”

* New Items are in Red*

A collection of flood-related resources and links to information can be found on the NEMA website at www.nema.nebraska.gov

State Response

Nebraska Emergency Management is working with its State partners within the State Emergency Operations Center (EOC). Nebraska and Iowa are working hand in hand with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) to ensure a safe response to the continual flooding threat. The EOC is monitoring both the Platte and Missouri rivers and encourages residents to remain vigilant, stay tuned to local news and follow directions from local and state officials if asked to evacuate the area.

Survey Crews are currently assessing the affected areas along the Platte River to determine what effects the water may have on homes, businesses, roads, bridges and other critical infrastructure.

In conjunction with the state emergency, several counties have declared disasters; Knox, Dakota, Burt, Washington ,Douglas, Sarpy, Cass, and Lincoln counties.

The Coast Guard issued a restriction on recreational boats on the Missouri River along the Nebraska-Iowa border effective at 5 p.m. Thursday.

Flood Hotline

A Nebraska Emergency Management Agency public information phone line, (855) 211-2453 or (855) 211-2454, will be staffed from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily, including weekends, until further notice. The hotline has been busy, please use patience when calling.

Weather

For updated weather information weather: www.noaa.gov and www.weather.com

Road Information

US- 30 Closed - North Platte to Maxwell due to water over the road near mile marker 183.

North Platte to North Platte Airport is OPEN – the closure is East of the airport. Authorized Vehicles Only. No through traffic permitted (This is being enforced!) This closure will remain until the North Platte River Subsides.

N-92 Closed - Tryon to Arthur due to water over the road near mile markers 193-194, near Snyder Hill. Travel over a flooded roadway is not advised. Local traffic only. Use alternate route. This closure will remain until water in this watershed area subsides.

For the most current road information visit the Nebraska Department of Roads website at www.511nebraska.gov. Citizens are encouraged to find alternate routes and not attempt to drive over any road that is covered with flood waters. Do not remove road closure barricades. Barricades are in place for your safety.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Joint Information Center – (402) 996-3877 www.nwo.usace.army.mil email: MRJIC@usace.mil

Federal Emergency Management Agency

If you are not sure if you are in flood prone area, check out the FEMA map service center http://msc.fema.gov

Flood insurance claims -- According to a FEMA official, flood insurance is available and policy claims will be covered regardless of how a flood is caused.

Local Health Departments

Every county in Nebraska is served by a local health department. Here’s a link to a listing of health departments and the counties they serve: www.dhhs.ne.gov/puh/oph/lhd.htm Call if you need local health information.

Animal Health

Flood waters displace wild animals as well as humans. The Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) warns people to be watchful for wild animals. The wildlife may be acting abnormally due to the stress of displacement. As animals interact and compete for the same resources, diseases such as rabies have an increased chance of transmission. DHHS always recommends avoiding direct contact with wild animals; however, under these circumstances they may be in unexpected places and act more aggressively.

Flood waters may also displace reptiles such as snakes and turtles. Information on reptiles indigenous to Nebraska can be found at http://snr.unl.edu/herpneb/

Evacuations

Be safe listen to public officials. Please evacuate to a safer location if told to do so.

Washington/Burt County: Mandatory evacuations have been ordered. Some voluntary

Richardson County: Some Voluntary North of Rulo

Nemaha County: Voluntary leaving low land

Cass County: Lake Waconda 40-110 homes

Sarpy County: Iske and Elbow Bend some voluntarily, 6-12 homes all voluntary leaving

Dixon County: Potential evacuations of large portions of the town of Newcastle and Ponca.

Dakota County: No mandatory evacuations. Some voluntarily and one shelter has been opened

Lincoln County: Some voluntary

Shelters – Red Cross

The Red Cross has opened a shelter at the Ft. Calhoun High School, 1506 Lincoln St., Fort Calhoun. It will be open today at noon and will remain open until further notice. For the most current information check www.redcross.org or call 1-800-RedCross to find the chapter serving your area.

South Sioux City Shelter – has opened at 3625 G St. in the South Sioux City Middle School

Or call 211 (human services helpline) to find out what resources are available; or visit the United Way of Midlands 211 website at http://www.ne211.org an additional number is (402) 444-6666.

Water Testing

Residents outside the Lincoln area can contact the Central District Health Department in Grand Island to test well water for Coliform bacteria in the majority of public and private wells statewide. Call (308) 385-5175 ext 160 for more information.

Homeowners can also order kits from the Nebraska Public Health Environmental Laboratory by calling (402) 471-3935 and request a Colilert test kit ($10) which can test for Coliform and E.coli. Homeowners need to collect the sample and return it to the lab within 30 hours of sample collection. Remember, if your drinking water looks, tastes, or smells odd…test it. Even if water has tested okay, it should be retested later to ensure bacteria hasn’t permeated the well.

Flood Clean-Up Scams

Homeowners and businesses that have experienced flooding are asked to remain vigilant when it comes to hiring services or purchasing goods. For tips on avoiding home repair scams, please visit the Nebraska Better Business Bureau’s website at www.nebraska.bbb.org or the Attorney General’s website at www.ago.ne.gov. If you feel you have been a victim of a clean-up or home improvement scam, contact the Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division at (800) 727-6432.

Insurance

The Nebraska Department of Insurance has flood insurance claim guides available on its website at www.doi.ne.gov. Insurance-related questions can be directed to the Department’s Consumer Affairs Division Monday-through-Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., by calling (877) 564-7323.

Fire Safety

The State Fire Marshal reminds citizens that if your power is out, and you need to use a generator to make sure your generator has been tested /approved and is in proper working order. Try not to overload circuits, and continue to be cautious when there’s a threat of lightning.

Additional Resources

Phone Numbers

Nebraska Flooding Hotline: Toll Free (855) 211-2453 or (855) 211-2452 8 a.m. to 10 p.m.

Nebraska Department of Insurance (877) 564-7323

Iowa Flooding Response (515) 725-3231

South Dakota (605) 773-3132 or toll free at (877) 579-0015

US Army Corps of Engineers – Information Center (402) 996-3877

Web Sites

Nebraska Emergency Management Agency website www.nema.nebraska.gov

The Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services’ website has a comprehensive listing of flood resources at. http://www.dhhs.ne.gov/SevereStorms/

Weather: www.noaa.gov and www.weather.com



Nebraska Department of Roads www.511nebraska.gov.

County Updates:

Cass County Emergency Management

Voluntary evacuations continue at Lake WaConDa. A public meeting of WaConDa residents is scheduled for Sunday morning. Two pumps arrived Thursday. Engineers are being consulted to determine feasibility of raising the height of the levee. Plattsmouth is sandbagging the water treatment plant and sewer plant and is nearing completion to three feet above the 1993 levels.

Sarpy Emergency Management Haworth Park and Marina is affected and remains closed. City of Bellevue EMA received 5,000 sandbags on Thursday. Gifford Farm is self evacuating to the Sarpy County fairgrounds. Burlington Northern is shutting down the rail line along the Missouri River south through Bellevue and Sarpy County.

Region 22 Emergency Management

The Corps of Engineers projects that within the next six to nine days there will be 12,000 cubic feet per second passing through the Scottsbluff, Gering, Terrytown area. This translates into imminent flooding of the low lying areas because of the river rising two to three feet above its current level.

There is a high potential for evacuation in Terrytown and Gering. Scottsbluff wants its residents to watch for potential surface water flooding of their residences in the Westmoor and Hunt’s Acres areas, and businesses south of the South Beltline Highway.

All communities involved are currently calling special meetings to discuss the river conditions. Maps showing the potential flood areas are available at the City Halls and Libraries for Scottsbluff and Gering, at the Terrytown City Offices, and Region 22 Emergency Management at 1801 Avenue B.

FLOOD RESOURCES PAGE

The City of Bridgeport has launched a Flood Resources Page:
http://www.cityofbport.com/index.php?page_id=c3tn3zxh&description=FLOOD_INFO

Noon River Information

STAGE: At Noon Friday, the stage of the North Platte River @ Bridgeport was 8.18 feet, or approximately 6,490 cfs.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST (issued at 11:06 AM): The River is forecast to remain fairly steady for the next 24 hours, with a slow rise to near 8.3 feet (or 6,830 cfs) by Monday.

PRESS RELEASE: Public Flood Preparedness Meeting Scheduled

The City of Bridgeport Office of Emergency Management, in conjunction with Region 21 Emergency Management, the Morrill County Sheriff’s Office, and Panhandle Public Health District have scheduled a public flooding preparedness meeting for Wednesday, June 8th at 7 p.m. at Prairie Winds Community Center in Bridgeport.

The purpose of the meeting is to get accurate, current information out to residents regarding the possibility of flooding in Bridgeport, update the public on steps that emergency officials are currently taking, and preparedness steps that residents and business owners should take in case of flooding.

Officials are preparing for increased water flows in the North Platte River. Based on conditions known at this time, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineer’s peak probable flows would raise the river stage to or slightly above flood stage. Officials are monitoring the situation around the clock.

The City, in conjunction with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has inspected and repaired major breaches in the levee system. However, it is impossible to completely predict where water levels will rise first, due to substantial changes in the river channels over the past 40 years.

Barring any torrential rainfall, officials are confident that peak flows would not arrive until late next week at the earliest. Therefore, no emergency measures are anticipated prior to the public meeting.

Due to all of the unknown factors, the City wants residents to be prepared in the event that flooding is imminent and evacuations are ordered. Officials are currently anticipating 24 to 48 hours advance notice before any evacuations would be ordered. Evacuation orders would come through the City’s reverse 911 system (Vital Call), and door to door notifications. All members of the public are encouraged to update their Vital Call contact information by going online to www.cityofbport.com, or stopping in at City Hall.

In preparation for higher water levels, the City will likely begin filling additional sandbags next week. This is precautionary only, and should not be seen as a sign that the flooding is imminent.

The City would like to develop a list of volunteers who are willing to help with sandbagging and other flood protection measures, when needed. Any members of the public who wish to volunteer are asked to stop by City Hall and fill out their release form. These volunteers will be contacted when and if they are needed.

The City is asking all residents to begin to prepare by thinking about where they would go if evacuated, and where they would relocate any animals or pets in an evacuation order. There will be more preparedness information available at the public meeting. Information can be obtained in advance from FEMA’s Ready.gov website.

Additional information and updates are posted on the City’s website at www.cityofbport.com, where a link to the Emergency Management blog can be found.

Thursday, June 2, 2011

6pm River Update

STAGE: At 6pm Thursday, the stage of the North Platte River @ Bridgeport was 8.15 feet, a change of -0.08 feet in the past 24 hours.

FORECAST (issued by the NWS at 9:40 AM): The River is forecast to rise through the next 24-48 hours, reaching "action stage" of 8.50 feet by Friday afternoon, and to 8.60 feet by late Saturday night.

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Nebraska Emergency Management Flood Information

(Lincoln, Neb.) – Nebraska Emergency Management Agency has opened the state Joint Information Center at the State Emergency Operation Center. State agency Public Information Officers will work together to keep the public informed on the flooding emergency.

A collection of flood-related resources and links to information follows.

Flood Hotline
A Nebraska Emergency Management Agency public information phone line, (855) 211-2453 or (855) 211-2454, will be staffed from 7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. daily, including weekends, until further notice.

Weather
For updated weather information weather: www.noaa.gov and www.weather.com
Road Information
Motorists are reminded to find an alternate route and not attempt to drive over any road that is covered with flood waters. Do not remove road closure barricades. Barricades are in place for your safety.
Call 511 or visit the “Know before you go” website at www.511nebraska.org for up-to-the minute road condition information.
U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
Joint Information Center – 402-996-3877 www.nwo.usace.army.mil
Animal Health
Flood waters displace wild animals as well as humans. Annette Bredthauer, DHHS public health veterinarian, warns people to be watchful for wild animals. “Wildlife may be acting abnormally due to the stress of displacement. As animals interact and compete for the same resources, diseases such as rabies have an increased chance of transmission.” The department always recommends avoiding direct contact with wild animals and under these circumstances they may be in unexpected places and act more aggressively.
Flood waters may also displace reptiles such as snakes and turtles. Information on reptiles indigenous to Nebraska can be found at http://snr.unl.edu/herpneb/
Shelters
Red Cross:
Red Cross chapters throughout the state are working closely with local emergency managers to determine needs and timeframes. Many have shelter sites on standby. As shelters open, the local and state Emergency Operation Centers will be notified as well as local media when possible. Check www.redcross.org or call 1-800-RedCross to find the chapter serving your area.
Call 211 (human services helpline) to find out what resources are available; or visit the United Way of Midlands 211 website at http://www.ne211.org an additional number is (402) 444-6666.
Water Testing
Residents outside the Lincoln area can contact the Central District Health Department in Grand Island to test well water for Coliform bacteria in the majority of public and private wells statewide. Call (308) 385-5175 ext 160 for more information.
Homeowners can also order kits from the State Laboratory by calling (402) 471-3935 and request a Colilert test kit ($10) which can test for Coliform and E.coli. Homeowners need to collect the sample and return it to the lab within 30 hours of sample collection. Remember, if your drinking water looks, tastes, or smells odd…test it. Even if water has tested okay, it should be retested later to insure bacteria hasn’t permeated the well.
Flood Clean-Up Scams
Homeowners and businesses that have experienced flooding are asked to remain vigilant when it comes to hiring services or purchasing goods. For tips on avoiding home repair scams, please visit the Nebraska Better Business Bureau’s website at www.nebraska.bbb.org or the Attorney General’s website at www.ago.ne.gov. If you feel you have been a victim of a clean-up or home improvement scam, contact the Attorney General’s Consumer Protection Division at (800) 727-6432.
Insurance
The Nebraska Department of Insurance has flood insurance claim guides available on its website at www.doi.ne.gov. Insurance-related questions can be directed to the Department’s Consumer Affairs Division Monday-through-Friday, 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., by calling (877) 564-7323.
USDA Flood Recovery Programs
There are a number of actions under emergency programs for farmers, ranchers and landowners to consider. Find more information on agricultural related flood losses online at the Nebraska Agricultural Department website at www.agr.ne.gov
Fire Safety
The State Fire Marshal reminds citizens that if your power is out, and you need to use a generator to make sure your generator has been tested /approved and is in proper working order. Try not to overload circuits, and continue to be cautious when there’s a threat of lightning.
Additional Resources
Nebraska Emergency Management Agency website www.nema.nebraska.gov
The Nebraska Department of Health and Human Services’ website has a comprehensive listing of flood resources at www.dhhs.ne.gov/SevereStorms.
NEMA on Face book: http://www.facebook.com/nema.page

Friday, May 27, 2011

Weekend Weather Outlook

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UPWARDS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM. THIS WILL FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING ALONG AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS.

Daily N.P. River Stage Information

This update is for the North Platte River at Bridgeport.

Current Information:
At 12:00 Noon Friday, the stage was 8.46 feet, which is down 0.07 feet from yesterday's stage of 8.53 feet. Flood Stage is 9.50 feet. Flooding is not occuring, and flooding is not currently forecast.

Forecast:
The river is currently forecast to remain nearly steady near bankfull stage for the next 48 hours.

Stage Information:
At 8:50 feet: Bankfull stage. Homes along the North Platte River will begin to experience water seepage into their basements.

At 9.50 feet: Flood stage. Minor lowland flooding occurs. Homes along the North Platte River will have water in their basements.

Historical Crests*:
(1) 8.51 feet on 05/28/1973
(2) 8.33 feet on 06/20/1984
(3) 8.06 feet on 06/28/1983
(4) 8.03 feet on 06/21/2010
(5) 7.67 feet on 06/13/2005

* The river reached 8.56 feet at Midnight on 5/26/2011, marking the highest crest on record.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Daily N.P. River Stage Information

This update is for the North Platte River at Bridgeport.

Current Information:
At 12:00 Noon Thursday, the stage was 8.53 feet, which is up 0.19 feet from yesterday's stage of 8.34 feet. Flood Stage is 9.50 feet. Bankfull conditions are occuring. Flooding is not occuring, and flooding is not currently forecast.

Forecast:
The river is currently forecast to slowly fall below "action stage" later today, but remain very high (in excess of 8.10 feet) for the next 48 hours.

Stage Information:
At 8:50 feet: Bankfull stage. Homes along the North Platte River will begin to experience water seepage into their basements.

At 9.50 feet: Flood stage. Minor lowland flooding occurs. Homes along the North Platte River will have water in their basements.

Historical Crests*:
(1) 8.51 feet on 05/28/1973
(2) 8.33 feet on 06/20/1984
(3) 8.06 feet on 06/28/1983
(4) 8.03 feet on 06/21/2010
(5) 7.67 feet on 06/13/2005

* The river reached 8.56 feet at Midnight on 5/26/2011, marking the highest crest on record.

Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Evening

THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AFTER 6 PM FOR THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 30 MPH CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

River Rises Above 1973 Level; Reaches Record Stage

At 12:00 Midnight, the stage of the North Platte River at Bridgeport rose to 8.56 feet, which surpasses the May 28, 1973 level of 8.51 feet. This stage is a new record for the North Platte River at Bridgeport. This stage is considered action or bankfull stage, and homes along the North Platte River will begin to experience water seepage into their basements. Flood stage is 9.50 feet.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

River Level Rises to Second Highest All-Time, Action Stage forecasted for next 12 hours

At 6:00 PM tonight, the stage of the North Platte River at Bridgeport rose to 8.47 feet, which now marks the second highest level all-time. The updated forecast has the river rising to 8.60 feet between now and 6 AM tomorrow morning! Action (or bankfull) stage is 8.50 feet, and the all-time record high is 8.51 feet, set on May 28, 1973. Both of these levels are expected to be surpassed overnight.

At 8.50 feet, homes along the North Platte River will begin to experience water seepage into their basements.

Flood stage is 9.50 feet. At this time, flood stage conditions are not forecast.